Here’s the first cat out of the bag

THAT DIDN’T take long. Just two days ago, I wrote that the Democratic Party of Japan, the government’s new ruling party, had the potential to create a circus with more rings than Ringling Brothers. No one could have expected the show under the big tent would start so soon, however.

Mabuchi (I'm not a Diet member, I just play one on TV) Sumio

One of the pigmeat provisions inserted for the general public in the party platform was the elimination of expressway tolls, despite polling that shows people are against it by at least a two-to-one margin.

Included in the English language version of their platform, which you can see on their website, is a promise to “revitalize local economies by eliminating highway tolls”, and to “progressively eliminate all highway tolls”. This is mentioned in at least three places in the platform, though one of those includes the weasel words, “in principle”.

Well, the weasel didn’t even wait for the Hatoyama government to be sworn in before it stuck its head out of the burrow.

On Wednesday, DPJ lower house member Mabuchi Sumio (Hatoyama group) from Yokohama appeared on the current affairs program Hodo Suteeshon broadcast on the TV Asahi network. The show is hosted by Furutachi Ichiro, and former Aera editor Isshiki Kiyoshi also appears as a commentator.

I didn’t see the program, but according to several Japanese sources, the following exchange took place.

Isshiki: If you eliminate expressway tolls, the traffic jams…

Mabuchi: We’ll have the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport conduct simulations in those places where it seems traffic jams are likely to occur, and charge tolls there.

Furutachi: What! But everyone thinks that all the expressways will be free except for the Metropolitan Expressway (in the Tokyo area) and the Hanshin Expressway (in the Osaka area).

Mabuchi: If it seems there will be traffic jams, there’ll be tolls.

Furutachi: We pretty much know where there are likely to be traffic jams. Will the Tomei Expressway have tolls? (The Tomei is 350 kilometers long and runs from Tokyo to Aichi.)

Mabuchi: I can’t say which routes are likely to be crowded.

Furutachi: Well, they’re already crowded now, so we know, don’t we?

Mabuchi: If we mentioned the names of specific routes that would retain the tolls…considering the emotions of the people in the area, it would have been difficult for us to say before the election.

“Don’t read my lips,” eh? I understand completely. If the expiration date of your campaign promises is the day after the election, it’s best to win the election first before you level with the voters. It’s right there in black and white in the poli sci textbooks used at all the finer universities, not to mention the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management.

Also during the program, Mr. Mabuchi said that some in the party thought they should spell out before the election which roads would still have tolls and those that wouldn’t.

Ah, but that would be telling!

Is there anyone in the DPJ who isn’t the political equivalent of a rubber duck in a straw hat floating in the bathtub?

Other than Ozawa Ichiro, and he probably doesn’t float.

Update: The Nihon Keizai Shimbun published a poll on 2 September revealing that roughly 60% of those surveyed said they would not use expressways more frequently even if tolls were eliminated. (58% said there would be no change, and 1% said they would use the expressways less frequently.) This was most pronounced for those aged 40 or older, with the percentage of people set in their ways rising to 67%. Even 51% of those in their 30s said it would have no effect on their driving choices.

Some of the reasons cited by respondents were:

* No increase in automobile use otherwise: 58%
* More crowded roads: 55%
* Higher expenditures on gasoline: 36%

Not often cited in this debate is Tokyo Vice-Governor Inose Naoki’s claim that only 10% of Japan’s registered vehicles are ever driven on expressways. That is perhaps a factor contributing to the first reason listed above.