Men should be either treated generously or destroyed, because they take revenge for slight injuries – for heavy ones they cannot.
- Niccolo Machiavelli
AFTER 420 PEOPLE in Tokyo elected Kan Naoto to replace Hatoyama Yukio as prime minister, polls showed a rebound in support for the ruling Democratic Party of Japan. Reports in the English-language news media used some colorful language to describe this shift in public sentiment. One said there was a “leap” in the rate of support, and another said it had “spurted”. Those aren’t words one usually associates with the people involved, particularly the second.
But there’s already an excellent descriptive term in common use in English to describe such a rebound in support, a political phenomenon that regularly occurs in all democracies. They could have called it a “bounce”.

Kan Naoto on tour
In the United States, for example, there are always stories after the two major parties hold their summer conventions during an election year to examine how much of a bounce they receive in the polls, and how quickly and to what extent that bounce dissipates. The media also uses it in such instances as, “President Obama received no bounce from the passage of his health care legislation.”
In Japan, the polls always bounce when a new prime minister is named in these circumstances. This time, the Kyodo (RDD) poll had the support numbers for the DPJ rising from about 21% to 36.1%, roughly 15 points. Meanwhile, the Fuji-Sankei RDD poll pegged the bounce at 30.6%, and Mainichi’s RDD poll showed it at 28%.
While we can’t compare the rate of support for the new Cabinet because it hasn’t been officially installed yet, we can look at the bounce the last two replacement prime ministers received in identical circumstances. Here are the figures from the Jiji poll when Fukuda Yasuo replaced Abe Shinzo in 2007:
Abe Shinzo in September: 25.5%
Fukuda Yasuo in October: 44.1%
And here are the numbers when Aso Taro replaced Fukuda Yasuo a year later:
Fukuda Yasuo in September: 15.6%
Aso Taro in October: 38.6%
Compared to the Fukuda and Aso bounces, the DPJ bounce seems to have been an unremarkable squirt rather than a spurt.
Indeed, what should concern the DPJ is that the Kan bounce will turn out to be just like the other two. Had the journos spent more time reading the financial pages of their own publications—I know, I know—they would be aware of a well-known Wall Street term that fits the circumstances perfectly: the “dead cat bounce”.
That expression originates from the idea that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”. Here’s the definition from one website:
Securities that are prone to a dead cat bounce share a few common characteristics. First, the securities are not held in high esteem, based on past performance. Second, there are no indicators that the securities in question are capable of attaining and sustaining a higher value in the current market. Last, there are no indicators that sustained growth would be achieved if some major economic shift occurred in the market.
Sound familiar?
We’ve already seen two dead cat bounces within the past three years. The most recent Asahi poll found 38% of the respondents supporting the continuation of a DPJ-based government, but an equal number disagreeing. That suggests the possibility of a third dead cat, perhaps before the end of the year.
It took a few months for those other cats to hit the pavement a second time, however. It is to Mr. Kan’s advantage that the upper house election will be held next month, before gravity begins to take effect.
*****
Speaking of dead cats, Kan Naoto might wind up being one dead cat politically after his Cabinet selections over the weekend.
Some commentators, including me, thought that selecting Mr. Kan as Mr. Hatoyama’s replacement was a sign that Ozawa Ichiro still controlled the party. But not only did the new prime minister suggest that Mr. Ozawa get lost for a while, he also selected Ozawa enemies to fill posts in a Cabinet reshuffle. (This is one of the things people mean when they talk about the DPJ’s structural incompatibilities.)
Everyone realized that Mr. Kan would have to demonstrate he was not an Ozawa puppet if he wanted his government to have any credibility at all, but selecting Edano Yukio as DPJ secretary-general to replace Mr. Ozawa, Sengoku Yoshito as chief cabinet secretary, and to a lesser extent, Ren Ho as governmental reform minister / consumer affairs minister is equivalent to the prime minister sticking his middle finger in the Boss Man’s face on live television. All three are anti-Ozawans, and the Edano-Ozawa animosity is particularly venemous.
Here’s Mr. Edano’s position as stated before his appointment:
Drive Ozawa Ichiro out of the DPJ!
And:
Mr. Ozawa is undemocratic. He does not recognize anyone who doesn’t listen to him.
The Japanese proverb kega no komyo is used to describe a misfortune (literally, an injury) that eventually has an unexpected benefit. It’s possible that Mr. Kan has created that situation in reverse. He’s winning plaudits for distancing himself from Mr. Ozawa now, but he could pay for it dearly down the road. He doesn’t seem to be the type of pol to be aware of the Machiavellian maxim at the top of the post, but Mr. Ozawa probably understands it instinctively. The latter is the kind of guy who brings a squad armed with submachine guns to a knife fight, while Mr. Kan is no one’s idea of a political street fighter.
Former U.S. President Lyndon Johnson once counseled that it was best to have the late FBI boss J. Edgar Hoover as an ally because he’d “rather have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.”
Mr. Kan has now ensured he has the man with the most toxic political urine in Japan inside the tent pissing in.
Here are some of the disadvantages of the new prime minister’s approach.
1. See you in September, baby
Mr. Kan was selected to fill out the remainder of Hatoyama Yukio’s term, which ends in September. Word from the Ozawa camp is that they’re already preparing for a rumble.
Mr. Ozawa sent a video message to a party meeting in his home prefecture of Iwate held on the evening of the 4th. Here’s part of what he said:
We can achieve real reform by stabilizing the government with a victory in the upper house election. At that time, I myself will do everything to lead the charge.
Some think that means he’s considering another run for party president in September. In fact, word is now leaking out, mostly from former Foreign Minister Tanaka Makiko, that he briefly considered running against Mr. Kan, but decided there wasn’t enough time to mount a campaign.
2. Sayonara, baby
Even his enemies in the party have put up with Mr. Ozawa for two reasons. First, he showed them how to win, which was beyond their political capabilities before he got there. They are not the smoothest of political operatives. Second, he’s put them on permanent notice that he’s always ready to walk. More than a few people think he’s always planned on walking someday anyway.
Recall that he worked out a deal with then-Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo to create a grand coalition government, a deal the other party elders led by Messrs. Hatoyama and Kan rejected. When they failed to kiss his ring, Mr. Ozawa abruptly quit as party head and made an unmistakable threat to split and take his supporters with him. The elders knew that if he left, their chance to take power left with him. He was back in the catbird seat a few days later.
Japanese commentators generally assume that he controls roughly 150 of the party’s 423 Diet members. That total might rise in the July election. Some think he can’t count on all of them to walk out the door with him, in part because people dislike his iron-fisted leadership methods. They may be right, but that would present practical problems for the ones who choose another political planet to orbit.
Mr. Ozawa knows how to run campaigns and raise money. No one in the DPJ knew before he showed up—they were just the beneficiaries of the default anti-LDP votes. The same applies to many of the current Diet members whose fannies are sitting in the plush seats of Nagata-cho because of him. How would they fare in a re-election bid without his support, election skills, and money-raising abilities?
3. A different breed of cat
Mr. Ozawa has been through similar situations several times before with several parties and reemerged each time. A cat with nine lives lands on his feet instead of bouncing off the sidewalk, and even though he’s 68, he might have a few of those lives left. He certainly knows the layout of this particular alley.
4. Back to square one
People have noticed the new Cabinet looks very much like the pre-Ozawa DPJ, led by the hapless Hatoyama and the irascible Kan, which could never gain serious traction with the voters. It had the reputation as a left-of-center coffee house debating society for squishes. Are they capable of standing on their own? Some think they spot the outlines of a battle between the Old DPJ and the Ozawa Liberal Party-wing taking shape.
The problem will be exacerbated by appointing Mr. Edano to serve as party secretary-general. His job will be to create party unity and run the national election campaign, and he’s never had any experience of that type before. How does he develop party unity when fingers already have started pointing after the Hatoyama debacle? How does he foster party unity among the more moderate elements such as himself and co-group leader Maehara Seiji, the hard-line left wingers who joined the party because they couldn’t win running as socialists, and those in the pockets of the labor unions? How does he create unity with Ozawa Ichiro disinclined to help him, though he is sure to be Johnny-on-the-spot for those loyal to him.
Add to that the dissatisfaction already expressed by Mr. Kan’s own faction for being passed over for important Cabinet posts. (Mr. Edano, Mr. Sengoku, and several other appointees are from the Edano/Maehara group.) The spoils are supposed to go to the victor, but the victor’s supporters didn’t get many.
Depending on circumstances, this election could well determine whether the DPJ survives as a party, and the campaign is now under the nominal supervision of people whose track record at this level contains more stumbles than successes.
In any event, the Old DPJ bloc in the party will have to lie in the bed they made. A lot of Mr. Kan’s support, particularly that from the Edano-Maehara group, came with the condition that he distance himself from Ozawa-style politics and the man himself. They got what they wanted. Now we’ll see if they know what to do with it.
Something to watch for
It was assumed that the upper house election would be called for July 11. One reason for circling that date is that prosecutors will make another decision on Ozawa Ichiro’s prosecution in mid-July. Will Mr. Kan choose to hold the election later in the month and hope the prosecutors bear good tidings?
A Kanusian quote-a-rama
From page 73 of the expanded edition of Daijin (Minister), which Kan Naoto published last December:
The problem (with the LDP era) was that the next prime minister was selected from the same party that had been responsible for the misgovernment…Fundamentally, when the ruling party selects its next prime minister, he should dissolve the lower house at that point and ask the people in a general election whom the prime minister should be. That didn’t happen, however, partly due to the weakness of the opposition parties.
Some prime ministers and presidents are tested by economic or security crises. A good test for Mr. Kan is how he would handle a question asking him about that passage from his book.
Health Minister Yanagisawa Hakuo was forced out of office during the Abe Shinzo administration for calling women “baby-making machines”. Mr. Kan was one of those who called for his head, but he’s also talked about the low birthrate:
The economy is good in Aichi and Tokyo. They say productivity is high, but in one sector, they’re competing for last place. They are the lowest in productivity for having children.
When called on it, he resorted to quoting the dictionary definition of “production”.
On the Marines in Okinawa:
After we form a government, we’ll have them leave right away.
When the Isahaya Bay project, in which part of the bay was closed off for dikes and landfill, became an issue after fishermen complained of red tides and a poor fishing environment, he stormed:
Under whose authority was this done?
He was a cabinet minister when the government approved the project.
He’s had a sex scandal of his own. Here’s how he handled it:
We spent the night together, but there was no male-female relationship. I bear no responsibility for explaining this.
On 5 June, the Ryukyu Shimpo, a regional Okinawa newspaper, rounded up some quotes of interest to their readership:
1996:
He agreed with Hatoyama Yukio that security was possible without American forces stationed permanently in Japan.
August 2001:
The absence of Marines in Okinawa wouldn’t cause great harm to Japan’s security.
July 2003:
Rather than moving (the Futenma-based marines) inside the country, it should be easier to think of moving them somewhere in the US, such as Hawaii.
July 2001:
On the Status of Forces Agreement
Rather than improving its implementation, mustn’t we reevaluate (i.e., change) the agreement itself?
November 2003:
The vertical structure of Kasumigaseki (the bureaucracy) is horrendous. We promise to appoint a minister responsible for all aspects of the Okinawa problem at the Cabinet level.
This weekend, on the consumption tax:
I hope to indicate a direction with the new cabinet and party executives, including the manner of expression.
By expression, he means the name they give it. As our last post on Mr. Kan explained, he was interested in renaming the national tax burden the “share” or “allotment”.
Here are some more English-language quotes rounded up by Jillian Melchior of Contentions, the blog for Commentary magazine, mostly about what Japanese foreign policy might be under Mr. Kan. Alas, my fellow self-absorbed Americans still don’t get it:
Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama had played to populism, running his campaign partially on promises to reduce American presence in Japan.
How shall I put this?
America, it isn’t always about you. I know you like to think of yourself as the center of the universe, but most people in the rest of the world manage to live their lives without thinking about you much at all.
Had Mr. Hatoyama said absolutely nothing about the American presence in Japan during the campaign, the election result would have been identical, with the possible exception of a few seats in Okinawa.
Have you forgotten Tip O’Neill? All politics is local. Last year’s election in Japan was as local as they get.
Kan the irascible
The new prime minister’s nickname in Japanese is Ira-Kan for his notoriously short temper, and that slides nicely into English as the irascible Kan.
Your Party Secretary-General Eda Kenji has developed a personal relationship with Mr. Kan, visiting him at his home to discuss politics. He wrote on his website about one such debate:
When I argued that reform was absolutely impossible for a party that relied on public employee labor unions (i.e., the DPJ), he pounded the table with his fist so hard he smashed a teacup and bloodied his hand.
Mr. Eda says that Mr. Kan has asked him several times to work with the DPJ, but he’s refused for this particular reason. He added, “As long as Your Party is the antithesis of the 90s political reorganization, we’ll never work with a party with the philosophy of the DPJ.”
Mr. Kan has kept a low profile recently, anticipating that he would replace Hatoyama Yukio, and he’s been holding only two pressers a week. Now he’s going to have to go to two a day. Said one reporter: “It hasn’t been conveyed because he’s had so little exposure in news coverage lately, but he still sometimes looks like he’s going to explode in anger, demanding of reporters, ‘Who said such a thing’. He reportedly banged a table and shouted at some bureaucrats over the search for the secret U.S.-Japan treaty.”
Kan the republican
A post by Miyazaki Masahiro floated around the Japanese-language Internet over the weekend claiming that Kan Naoto refuses to sing the national anthem. This naturally got people upset, some more than others.
I spent some time looking for confirmation, and the only thing I could come up with was his–and the DPJ’s—opposition to the 1999 bill making the Hinomaru the national flag and Kimi ga Yo the national anthem. He proposed an amendment that kept the clause about the flag but removed Kimi ga Yo as the anthem. The DPJ and other parties of the left voted for it. They lost.
Those who can read Japanese can see some of the debate on this page, as well as the people who voted for and against it. Hatoyama Yukio spoke in the Diet in favor of Mr. Kan’s amendment against designating Kimi ga Yo as the national anthem. He justified his opposition by citing the association it has in some people’s minds with the glorification of the Imperial household during the war.
It really is time to end this charade.
The DPJ knows as well as anyone else—and better than I—that the lyrics to the song originated as a poem more than a millennium ago, and that kimi (you) referred not to the Tenno (emperor) but to one’s lover. It came to have Imperial associations later.
They know as well as anyone else the difference between shrine Shinto and the state Shinto of the war years, the reasons for the difference, and the reasons for the eventual abuse of state Shinto. They know as well as anyone else that this period in Japanese history is an exception rather than the rule.
Here’s my conclusion: Kan Naoto and the rest of the DPJ are republicans in the way the British use the term. In other words, they’re opposed to the existence of the Imperial household itself. They would still be republicans had World War II never happened. The republican position can be controversial in Britain, and it is even more so in Japan. The Japanese republicans realize they wouldn’t stand a chance with public opinion unless they played off war guilt.
There are many rational, intelligent people in Japan who can and do make the case for maintaining the Imperial traditions as the symbol of the nation. Yet they are no more interested in marching back into the Korean Peninsula than a British monarchist would be in re-colonizing India.
When the new Cabinet officially takes office, they will go to the Imperial Palace in formal dress and receive a proclamation from the Tenno. They will not swear an oath of allegiance, as is done in Britain. There, at the start of every Parliament, all the MPs take the oath: “I [name] swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God.”
This site shows a photo of the late Tony Banks crossing his fingers while taking the oath, which caused a bit of a ruckus. In 1998, 15 dukes, three of them from the royal family, refused to take the oath. One MP added the words “and all who sail on her” after the words Queen Elizabeth. (A funny line, isn’t it?) The British monarchists and republicans may not care for each other’s views, but everyone still soldiers on without the nation collapsing.
It’s time for Mr. Hatoyama, Mr. Kan, and others to quit griping about the song, knock off the lame excuse about the war—which gets lamer with each passing year—and just admit that they’re republicans. The “forever guilty” pose is as tiresome as it is unattractive and false.
Mr. Edano and Mr. Maehara also voted for the Kan amendment, incidentally. Whether they did so out of party loyalty, or whether they too are republicans, is not possible to know.
And, to steal a line from Detective Columbo, I almost forgot: When opposing the 1999 bill for the national flag and anthem, Mr. Hatoyama complained that only 13 hours of debate were allowed. That’s more than twice the amount of time he allowed for debate in the lower house on the Japan Post re-privatization bill last month.
Afterwords:
The photo shows Mr. Kan in 2004 making the 88-temple pilgrimage in Shikoku to atone for his failure to pay his share into the general pension fund, for which he was bounced as party leader during his first time around. Note the shaved head.
Another Cabinet minister to be bounced will be Agriculture Minister Akamatsu Hirotaka for his mishandling of the foot and mouth epidemic in Miyazaki. It isn’t just the politicos who are prone to that malady. A total of 130,000 cows and pigs will be slaughtered in that small, mostly rural prefecture, with a loss of roughly JPY 35 billion (about $US 380.3 million). It’s a major story in Japan that’s caused yet more trouble for the DPJ government, but political free-for-alls in the city get more TV time than dead animals in the country, even when the economic impact is severe.
Memo to the DPJ: I know your English-language website isn’t a priority, but don’t you think that keeping the old “You have made history!” banner is inappropriate under the circumstances? Isn’t it time you updated the site to include a national apology?
Finally, the Iconic Photos website with the picture of the MP crossing his fingers during the oath in Parliament has nothing to do with Japan, but I enjoy following the site’s posts.









