The debate over taxes will be decided in a different dimension than that of the citizens’ opinions or wishes. The citizens already feel a sense of powerlessness and wonder what elections are for.
- Doctor Z in Gendai Business
IF one country puts the lie to the aphorism that people get the government they deserve, it is Japan. What more is an electorate supposed to do? Japanese voters have tried everything short of hanging the politicians from lampposts to make their wishes very clear: More reform, less central government, lower taxes. They’ve punished at the polls, often brutally, politicians of every party for ignoring them. Though it was not the first expression of voter intent, Koizumi Jun’ichiro’s landslide victory in the 2005 lower house election marked a turning point in voter awareness. What was their reward? His successor, Abe Shinzo, allowed back into the party the foxes Mr. Koizumi threw out of the henhouses. His two successors turned their back on the Koizumian reforms that the voters favored.
That set up the Democratic Party of Japan’s own landslide victory at the next lower house election four years later. But in one of the most successful bait-and-switch scams ever, the DPJ accomplished in just two years what it took the Liberal-Democratic Party 40 to do: They’ve sloughed off their glitter to dip themselves in dreck. As a result, they lost ground in the upper house election last year instead of the outright majority they wanted, and have been pummeled in local elections since.
The one certainty in addition to death and taxes in Japan is that the politicos will ignore the lead story on the front page of the newspaper this morning, which presents a summary of the latest Kyodo polling results.
The findings that the support rate for the Noda Cabinet slid 2.5 points from the month before, to 44.6%, and the non-support rate rose six points to 40.3%, were not the reason for the prominent placement. Here are the results that were:
* Do you think the lower house of the Diet should be dissolved and an election held before a bill is submitted to increase the consumption tax?
Yes: 50.7%
* Do you favor the (Finance Ministry-inspired) Noda plan to pass the tax increase bill first and then hold an election?
Yes: 25.4%
The people also have an idea about where to start looking for solutions. They were asked if there should be a realignment of political party membership. (The unstated premise, which everyone knows, is to achieve ideological consistency.)
Yes: 71.5%
Not necessary: 17.8%
Another important element of the popular will is revealed by their continued selection of radical reformers as the chief executives of local government. Some of the candidates they choose may not be the ideal vessel for those reforms, but they’re the ones listening to the consistent message from throughout the country: We want decentralization and downsizing.
That was demonstrated yet again by Hashimoto Toru’s decisive victory in the election for Osaka mayor a week ago. It was a ratification of his plan to administratively reorganize the Osaka area to resemble the governmental infrastructure in Tokyo, though he’s also a champion of decentralization. That means the mayors of Japan’s second- and third-largest cities, Osaka and Nagoya, are now reformers. The administration of the Tokyo Metro District, particularly with Inose Naoki as Deputy Governor, also has that cast.
Thus, these numbers from the Kyodo poll will not be a surprise:
The combination of those who have hopes for regional parties or who lean that way: 72.4%
The combination of those who do not: 24.6%
Upper house member Yamamoto Ichita of the LDP stated the obvious:
People criticize Mr. Hashimoto and call him a dictator, but he also placed Osaka Prefecture’s finances on a sound footing. Unless the existing political parties take this result very seriously, they’ll find themselves in big trouble in the next election.
The existing political parties know it as well as Mr. Yamamoto. That’s why the DPJ will delay the next lower house election as long as they can, and the DPJ/LDP/New Komeito troika will try to rig the system in the meantime to their advantage.
The national imbalance in the number of people represented in each Diet district has been declared unconstitutional, so a redistricting scheme is required before the next election, which must be held by the summer of 2013. The DPJ promised in 2009 to reduce the number of national legislators, but no one expects them to keep their promises anymore. The mudboat wing of the LDP wants a return to the multiple-seat district system that was eliminated in the 1990s. Their allies in New Komeito and the smaller parties want to keep the proportional representation system instead shifting to a winner-take-all system, because that’s the only way they can keep their seats. LDP head Tanigaki Sadakazu said that an “all-or-nothing” system wasn’t suited to Japan.
Regardless of whether it is suited to Japan, it definitely isn’t suited to the old factional style of LDP politics.
Because the three parties haven’t figured out a way to divvy up the political spoils yet, the DPJ announced they will not submit an electoral reorganization plan in the current Diet session. That will thwart the popular will once again, as they will submit a scheme for a tax increase before whatever farce they come up with for electoral reform. Apparently, the ruling party thinks that tossing out the plank of an election manifesto that promises no new tax increases by raising taxes without taking it to the people first is perfectly suited to Japan.
In short, the politicians in Japan are actively moving in reverse and beavering away to achieve the opposite of everything the people have been telling them to do. It’s scant consolation that politicians in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany, among other countries, are behaving the same way.
Indeed, they’re lucky the Japanese prefer public order to public unrest. If this country resembled Libya, there’d be more than 700 bloody backsides on corpses in Nagata-cho instead of just one in the Sahara.
*****
Politicians ain’t the only ones who take all the gold. You know that ain’t right.
Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Yahoo Buzz | Newsvine
























































