Eat whale and save the planet

“LESS INTELLIGENT WHALE SPECIES are much like sheep and should be sustainably hunted.”

Is that an argument presented by Japan’s Institute of Cetacean Research?

No, guess again. It was one of the key points of an essay titled Beautiful Lies written by Australian environmental scientist Tim Flannery and published four years ago.

Said Dr. Flannery:

“My view is that at present the anti-whaling lobby is frustrating the attempt to develop a sustainable industry based on these creatures, and is therefore frustrating good management of marine resources…I think the Japanese are right. They are actually trying to create a sustainable whaling industry.”

In an interview on Australian radio (transcript here), Dr. Flannery stated:

The issue of stopping whaling, for example, now really has no environmental basis. People are investing a lot of time and energy in protecting whales from being harvested for what is almost no environmental return.

Resist the temptation to label Dr. Flannery an oddball. Time Magazine International referred to him as a Hero of the Environment in 2007 in this article written by Peter Garrett, Australia’s new environmental minister. Mr. Garrett, a former singer in the group Midnight Oil, compares him favorably to Al Gore.

Of equal interest is the thinking of those who disagree with him. Here’s the reason one reviewer objected to Dr. Flannery’s argument:

“We need to consider the significant psychological impact on humanity of allowing the killing of such majestic creatures.”

Here’s another:

“The problem for me is we know that whales are intelligent, gentle creatures – and who are we to conduct cranial and virtual IQ tests on them to determine whether they live or die? Far better, for this reader, that they be left in peace to sing their songs of the deeps.”

Those who look askance at the quasi-religious nature of environmentalism can take no comfort from his other views, however. The issue of whaling is one of Dr. Flannery’s few forays into environmentalist apostasy. As you can see from this interview, he is livid about global warming (even though the subject is outside his field of expertise).

Note: I found the link to the first article on Tim Blair’s website and went from there.

Citron baths in Japan on the winter solstice

THE JAPANESE IMAGINATION is nearly unlimited when it comes to bathing methods. For example, today was the first day of winter, and there is a tradition that taking a bath filled with citrons (known as yuzu in Japan) on this day will prevent colds for a year.

So the local hot springs and tourism association in Mimasaka, Okayama Prefecture, put two and two together and distributed roughly 1,800 citrons for use at the bathing facilities at 30 hotels, lodging houses, and other establishments in the city’s hot springs district. Shown in the photo is the footbath at Fureai-no-Yu, with about 30 of the fruit bobbing in the spa water. Even if a citron bath won’t prevent colds for a full year, any excuse to go to a Japanese bathhouse is fine with me. The patrons in the photo certainly look as if they’re enjoying themselves.

Citrons are too difficult to peel and have too little fruit to be eaten on their own, but citron jam has become quite popular in Japan. It is sweetened and can be spread on toast like any other jam, but it can also be mixed with hot water and drunk as yuzu-cha, or citron tea.

This popularity might be due to the Korean influence. During my first trip to Busan, South Korea, about 10 years ago, I brought back a large jar of citron preserves that I bought from an old street merchant with a pushcart on the recommendation of one of the Koreans showing us around. I was traveling in a group with about 10 Japanese people, but none of them seemed to be interested.

That soon changed, however. After returning to Japan I divvied up some of the preserves with the other people in the group, all of whom loved it when drunk as yuzu-cha. In fact, they liked it so much, every one of them made it a point to buy some when we went back the next year. And my wife liked it so much, she had me buy several jars on that second trip.

The recent popularity of citron tea in Japan could very well stem from the increased travel of Japanese to South Korea, though of course that’s only speculation.

One problem with the Korean product is that it is sweetened with saccharin, the use of which is restricted in Japan. (All the Korean products I saw contained saccharin, but perhaps those using natural sweeteners are also available.)

Now, however, it’s very easy to buy naturally sweetened yuzu preserves in Japan. My wife buys it by the case and gives some away to friends and relatives, who always come back for more.

I’ve never taken a yuzu bath, because it’s not so easy to buy the fresh fruit where I live. But every year we always buy some of a large citrus fruit grown in Kumamoto called bampeiyu. Known among the scientific community as citrus grandis, among other names, they’re the color of grapefruit, slightly smaller than a bowling ball, and aren’t sour. In fact, they’re delicious.

The rinds are rather thick, and my wife always puts them in the bath water for a couple of days. Are they effective for preventing colds? I don’t know, but they do impart a nice fragrance to the bath. If you don’t mind citrus fruit rind floating in the tub, you should try it!

Watanabe spills a few beans from coalition confab

TSUNEO WATANABE, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of the Yomiuri Shimbun Holdings and Japan’s reigning media baron, appeared on a taped television program broadcast on the Nippon Television Network on the 21st and provided the first background information on the ill-fated conference held between Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and main opposition party head Ichiro Ozawa, the Jiji Press reports.

Observers of the Japanese political scene will recall that the two leaders discussed a grand coalition between the ruling Liberal Democratic party and the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. Thus ensued a farcical chain of events in which Mr. Ozawa resigned as DPJ head after being chastised by party elders for taking part in the talks, only to return three days later.

Mr. Watanabe (photo) arranged the conference with the help of either former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori or former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone, depending on which story you believe.

Of interest is Mr. Watanabe’s assertion that a deal had been struck in which Mr. Ozawa would have entered the Cabinet as Deputy Prime Minister, but without specific duties (muninsho in Japanese, the term used for ministers without portfolio). He also said that agreement had been reached on the distribution of other Cabinet posts.

In fact, he said the deal would have given 10 Cabinet posts to the ruling LDP, six to the DPJ, and one to the ruling coalition’s junior partner New Komeito. Of the six posts, Mr. Ozawa is said to have asked for the portfolios of the ministries of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport; Health, Labor, and Welfare; and Agriculture, Farming, and Fisheries. It was also his idea to be given the post of Deputy Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, a Sankei Shimbun report on the program focuses on other aspects of the interview. They quote Mr. Watanabe as saying, “A movement will emerge in the future to create a stable administration.” They take this to mean that the two parties have not given up on the idea of creating a coalition government.

Mr. Watanabe also said he has not met with Ichiro Ozawa since the original coalition discussions ended because “a cooling-off period” is necessary. He thinks the primary reason the talks failed was that “Mr. Ozawa took it for granted that party leaders would immediately agree to whatever he said.”
　
Interestingly enough, Yasuhiro Nakasone, one of those rumored to have been involved as a go-between, appeared with Mr. Watanabe on the program. He offered this forecast: “A coalition government (of some sort) will probably be created after the next election.” He also gave his opinion that the previous discussions of a grand coalition were held too hastily, and that Mr. Ozawa should have talked it over first with party leaders Naoto Kan and Yukio Hatoyama.

This is the first time Mr. Watanabe has provided behind-the-scenes details about the conference. Mr. Ozawa, however, has repeatedly denied that these arrangements were made. He told a press conference, “Mr. Watanabe wasn’t present at the talks. I have no intention of saying anything more than is required about those discussions (with Prime Minister Fukuda), but I will say only this: It didn’t happen that way.”

Both of these men are quite capable of ma-aka no uso, or bright red lies, as the Japanese say, so there’s no vouching for the veracity of the report. Of the two men, however, Mr. Watanabe might have less to lose by telling the truth.

On an unrelated note, I discovered by accident that Tsuneo Watanabe was named the Cannes 2007 Media Person of the year at the Cannes Lions International Advertising Festival. The press release, which you can read here, quotes Terry Savage, Executive Chairman of the Festival:

“Historically Cannes Lions has looked West when making this most important and prestigious award. This year we are looking East. In recognising Tsuneo Wantanabe, we are honouring a leader who has contributed to building one of the great media organisations in the world, a leader who has the awesome responsibility of publishing the largest circulation newspaper in the world. A leader who has not just embraced press, but also TV, radio and a range of other media and business ventures.”

Endnote: The above is summarized from Jiji Press and Sankei Shimbun articles. I didn’t see the program in question.

Spirit of the Season in Seoul

THE CHRISTMAS SPIRIT LIVES in Northeast Asia too, as this brief article from the Chunichi Shimbun reveals.

It was written by the newspaper’s Seoul correspondent, is in Japanese, and will not stay online for long, so here’s a quick translation:

I went to buy a Christmas tree with the family. We were looking for a large one about 180 centimeters high. We were told they would be cheaper than trees in Japan.

The store had several different types on display, with different heights and branch arrangements. We found a tree that we liked, and with the lights and silver-colored decorations, the bill came to 87,000 won. (About $US 92.60)

The clerk explained that the tree would be delivered to our home in the next two days, but it didn’t come. What did come was a call from the shop on the evening of the second day. “We’re all sold out of the tree you ordered. Would you like to have a different tree that costs 15,000 won more? We’ll cover the difference in price ourselves.”

I wondered how it would be different from the tree we ordered. The clerk explained the differences in the shape of the branches and the color, but I only vaguely understood what he said because he used a lot of vocabulary that I wasn’t familiar with. I asked them to deliver the tree on the condition that we could return it if we didn’t like it.

Happily, my family liked the tree, so I was relieved. I can understand the Korean that I use in my work because I’m accustomed to hearing it, but shopping still gives me a lot of trouble.

You might keep that story in mind the next time you read an article that would have you believe the Japanese and Koreans get along poorly with each other.

Note on the Tree

Sorry, that’ s not Seoul, but a Christmas tree story needs a Christmas tree photo, and I liked this one.

The tree is actually made of poinsettias and is on display at the Hiroshima Botanical Garden in Hiroshima City. About 130 plants were used to create the 2.5-meter high tree.

It is part of a larger seasonal exhibit in one of their greenhouses, which also includes the Manettia luteorubra, whose flowers are said to resemble candles, and cat thyme, which is a potent form of catnip and has silvery leaves.

Nippon Noel: How the Japanese spend Christmas

HOW DO THE JAPANESE SPEND CHRISTMAS? The best way to answer that is to let the Japanese answer themselves, and the good news is they already have—through surveys.

A group called Work-Life conducted one such survey from 19-22 November. The survey subjects were 891 men and women from the ages of 20-59. Here are the questions and their answers.

Q: Do you feel Christmas is a special day?
The group with the highest percentage of affirmative answers were those in their twenties at 66.5％. Interest in the holiday declined with age, and fell to 36% for people in their 50s.

Q: How do you plan to spend the day?
The highest response was to relax at home, given by 56.8% of the respondents. This was followed by people who planned to have a party at home (22.8％), and people who planned to go out for dinner (18.4％)

Q: For those who plan to relax at home and those who plan to have a party at home, what sort of meals will you eat?
The people who said they expected to have pre-prepared meals, either partially or entirely, accounted for nearly 70% of the responses, showing that home meal replacements will be an important part of Christmas dinner for many. (Finding out things like this is why they conduct the surveys in the first place.)

Broken down by age group, 80% of people in their 20s say they will use home meal replacements. The incidence of this answer trends downward as the respondent’s age increases. Conversely, the older people get, the more likely they are to make their own dinner at home.

Q: For those who plan to have home replacement dinners or to buy pre-prepared ingredients, how much do you plan to spend? (Don’t include Christmas cake and drinks.)
A total of 75.4% of the respondents said less than 5,000 yen. (Roughly US$44.00)

Q: How does this compare to last year’s expenditures?
74.6% replied there would be no change. Fewer than 10% of the people in their 40s or 50s said they would spend more or slightly more, but slightly fewer than 30% of those in their 20s and 30s planned to spend more. Thus, younger people plan on having a more elaborate Christmas celebration.

Q: For those going out to dinner, what type of establishment will you visit?
68.9% said a restaurant, followed by 15.9% who answered an izakaya （a traditional Japanese eating and drinking place).

Q: How much will you spend at these establishments?
Only 5% of the respondents said more than 30,000 yen (US$265.00), and 65.9% said less than 10,000 yen ($88.00). The survey group concluded that people aren’t splurging as they did during the bubble economy days, despite Japan’s brightening economic picture.

All About Presents

What would Christmas be without presents? A survey conducted by Japan.Internet.Com and goo research uncovered some information on Japanese attitudes towards Christmas gifts.

Those surveyed were 1,089 Internet users from their teens to 60 and older. 53.35% were men and 46.65% were women.

Q: Do you plan to give a Christmas present?
44.9% of the respondents said yes and 20.11% said they were thinking about it. 34.99% said no.

Q: To whom will you give a present?
75.05% answered a family member, and 23.11% said a lover. 16.36% of those participating said a friend or acquaintance. Meanwhile, 4.29% said themselves (Multiple answers were possible.)

Q: Where will you buy the presents?
82.41% said brick-and-mortar stores, and 28.83% said an Internet shop. Those are interesting results for an Internet survey.
Just 7.36% said they would give something homemade, and 2.86% said they would give something they already had on hand.

Q: How much money will you spend?
38.24% said between 1,000 (US$8.83) and 5,000 yen, and 31.90% said from 5,000 to 10,000 yen.

Q: What will you buy as presents?
The reply from 30.47％ was clothing, 17.38％ said confections, 17.18％ said game software, and 15.75％ said jewelry. In fifth place was “others”, with 14.72％. When those giving “others” as an answer were asked to specify what they would buy, most said toys.

Q: What would you like to receive as a present?
14.97％ hoped for jewelry, while 13.59％ wanted clothing, and 11.75％ said gift certificates.

Yet another survey found that about 90% of all children would receive Christmas presents. (That corresponds with the answers I got in an informal discussion of this question with the students of two college classes I taught in the spring.

Finally, for the sake of comparison, let’s look at some answers from an Internet survey last January conducted by My Voice Communications. They had 10,000 respondents.

45% said they bought Christmas cakes
40% bought presents.
29% had some kind of Christmas decorations in their homes
25.8% said they had a party at home.
More than 20% prepared Christmas dinner at home.
26% said they did nothing special.

The Trees

We’ve seen before that the Japanese have an imaginative approach toward Christmas trees. Here’s a word about the two trees in the photos accompanying this post. The first one is probably unlike any in a Western country. Located in Shiogama, Miyagi Prefecture, it is made of 30 tairyobata, or banners hung by fishing boats to signal a large catch of fish.

A crew of 15 hung a fishing net arranged to look like a tree on the side of a wall 17 meters high on a square near the harbor and decorated it with lights. They also stretched rope down from the roof and attached the banners so that they hung in a triangular tree shape.

The tree, which was first erected last year, will be lit from 5:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. until the 31st.

The second tree is on a traffic circle in front of the Entetsu Railroad’s Hamakita Station in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture. It will be lit every day from 5:00 to 11:00 p.m. until 15 January.

The tree has roughly 9,000 LEDs that are used for illumination. There are also lights resembling snow crystals and stars decorating a nearby mural, as well as 40 other illuminated trees in the area.

Japan to postpone humpback whale catch

CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY MACHIMURA NOBUTAKA announced on the 21st that the government had decided to postpone their planned catch of 50 humpback whales during the current whaling expedition on the condition that the operations of the International Whaling Commission, in which whaling nations and nations opposed to whaling are in conflict, are “normalized”.

The intention to catch humpbacks created such an uproar in Australia and New Zealand that some countries pleaded with the Japanese to call off that part of the hunt. The Australian government planned to shadow the Japanese whaling fleet to film the operation for a possible legal challenge.

Mr. Machimura’s comments are worth noting. He said, “We didn’t give any consideration to Australia in particular, but hope this will result in improved relations…Some Australians cherish the humpback whales and give them names. Those sentiments are a little difficult for me to understand.”

One wonders what he would say about Sea Shepherd, which considers whaling to be cannibalism. That radical eco-group will still try to interfere with the expedition, regardless of the Japanese decision.

Lower house election: Sooner rather than later?

“The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.”
– Antonio Gramsci

AN ARTICLE APPEARING in the December issue of Sentaku magazine lays out the speculation that Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will dissolve the lower house and call an election earlier than next summer, when it was originally expected.

The article, abridged and translated into English for the Japan Times, also makes the point that the three major parties are in “disarray”, and that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda has trouble making up his mind. (A politer way of expressing that is to say he seeks out advice from many sources before deciding on a course of action.)

Several other sources have suggested recently that decisive leadership may not be one of the prime minister’s best qualities, with the usual corroboration from unnamed whisperers in his own party.

The article neglects to mention that the decision to dissolve the Diet may not be Mr. Fukuda’s alone to make. Reports before he was elected party president claimed that the party elders made one condition of their support the retention of the right to make that decision.

Over the long run, however, the most important information might be this:

Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi rocked the Japanese political landscape in November by predicting that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda would dissolve the Lower House and call a general election “in the near future.”…A ranking official of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party said, however, that Koizumi, rather than making a prediction, was expressing his wish for an early general election that would lead to a thorough reorganization of the political parties, now that a plan to form a “grand coalition” between the LDP and the No. 1 opposition Democratic Party of Japan has failed.

Like a fire under a pile of burning leaves, the trend toward the creation of a modern, ideology-based two-party system in Japan is slowly growing out of sight. It might yet erupt into open flame when we least expect it.

In the meantime, as Antonio Gramsci once observed, a variety of morbid symptoms are likely to appear until a new political arrangement is born.

Pyeongyang caught in another lie?

THIS ARTICLE FROM THE WASHINGTON POST suggests that the North Koreans might have been outsmarted:

U.S. scientists have discovered traces of enriched uranium on smelted aluminum tubing provided by North Korea, apparently contradicting Pyeongyang’s denial that it had a clandestine nuclear program, according to U.S. and diplomatic sources.

The article notes the tubing could have been contaminated by exposure to other equipment, but North Korean credibility is not such that it can automatically claim it was an honest mistake. Here’s the interesting part:

David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, said…that several Energy Department laboratories have highly sophisticated methods of detecting the nuclear material from items that had been thoroughly decontaminated.

Did the North Koreans decontaminate the tubing before submitting it to remove the evidence?

If so, it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve been caught out by advanced technology. As proof that a younger Japanese man whom they had abducted had later died while in North Korea, they submitted what they said were his cremated remains to the Japanese government.

A Japanese analysis discovered the bones were those of an old woman. Pyeongyang claimed the Japanese were lying, but it turned out they had burned the bones twice to foil identification. They were unaware that advances in technology had rendered that particular subterfuge obsolete.

How much longer does the world have to wait for their discovery that their political, governmental, and social systems are obsolete as well?

For background, here is a report from the same newspaper dated 10 November saying that the North Koreans would be providing evidence they weren’t enriching uranium. Now the possibility emerges that they were being too clever by half.

Based on the amount of space they devoted to the possibility, the Washington Post seems to have been laying the groundwork in this article to discredit Bush administration policy. Why they would take the word of Pyeongyang over Washington is another issue entirely.

Naturally, they saved the critical information for last in a 17-paragraph article.

David Albright…said in a report this year that there is “ample evidence” that North Korea was trying to put together a small-scale research program involving a few dozen centrifuges but that claims of a large-scale effort were flawed.

Albright said yesterday that the tubes acquired by North Korea needed to be cut in half and shaped in order to be used as the outer casings of centrifuges. If Pyongyang proves that the tubes were untouched, he said, it could “shatter the argument” that they were meant for a uranium program.

But Albright said it is difficult to see how North Korea could explain away a set of centrifuges that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said a Pakistani nuclear-smuggling network provided to Pyongyang. “I think the North Koreans are making a big mistake” if they deny they had any interest in uranium enrichment, he said. “They are going to create a lot of trouble if they stick to this.”

What trouble is created by the latest discovery remains to be seen.

NOTE: A commenter has pointed out that the bones analyzed by the Japanese government were supposedly those of Megumi Yokota, rather than a man. I regret the error.

DPJ objective: Forming a minority coalition in Japan

HERE’S A FURTHER INDICATION the opposition Democratic Party has adopted a strategy of forming a coalition government if they win enough seats in the next lower house election but fail to gain an outright majority.

The Sankei Shimbun reported that during a televised interview on the 17th, DPJ Diet Affairs Committee Chair Kenji Yamaoka said, “A petit coalition is possible after the next lower house election. The possibility is extremely high that we will form a government with some other group.”

The Sankei suggests the DPJ might try to match up with a group of MPs who would split from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, but the newspaper does not indicate who those people might be.

The LDP currently has a 100-seat advantage over the DPJ in the lower house, and while that margin almost certainly will be reduced in the next election, few people think the DPJ would win an outright majority. Some observers have speculated that if the DPJ wins the most seats in the lower house, but still lacks a majority, they would try to convince the New Komeito Party, currently the junior coalition partner in the LDP-led government, to switch sides.

Mr. Yamaoka’s supreme confidence is in keeping with the bluster that has lately emerged from some members of the DPJ leadership. He also said, “The reversal of the position of the two parties in the upper house has been solidified. The only possibility is for a (DPJ-led) administration. This will happen automatically even if we do not ‘meddle with’ the LDP.” (自民党へ手を突っ込まなくても自動的にそうなる。)

Such a turn of events is certainly a possibility, but considering the recent volatility of the Japanese electorate and events on both sides of the aisle in Nagata-cho, Mr. Yamaoka might well keep in mind the Japanese proverb, Toranu tanuki no kawa zanyo: Counting the skins of a badger you haven’t caught.

In other words, don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched.

Found at the bottom of a Kumamoto well

DIG A HOLE IN JAPAN and there’s no telling what will turn up. Almost 20 years ago, construction work began for an industrial park in a rural area and uncovered relics that led to one of the most important archaeological discoveries in Japan at what is now the Yoshinogari Historical Park.

The Kumamoto City Board of Education announced on the 19th a discovery much smaller in scale but fascinating nonetheless. Poking around in what was once a well on the site of an old settlement near the Kumamoto City JR station, workers found 43 intact pieces of Chinese ceramics and pottery dating from the 12th century just 50 centimeters below the surface. You can see the condition of the pieces in the accompanying photo.

The settlement, which was found during some redevelopment work a few years ago, existed from the Heian period (794-1185) to the Kamakura period (1185-1333). Ceramics began to be imported from China in large quantities at the end of the Heian period. While similar discoveries have been made throughout the country, seldom have the ceramics been intact.

The pottery had been placed in the well stacked according to type—there were both celadon bowls and plates. Experts think the pieces might have been placed in a box and buried there after being used in a Shinto ceremony to purify the well after it was no longer used. The markings and shape of the bowls suggest they came from two specific kilns in southern China.

The prefecture wasted no time showing their discoveries to the public—the ceramics will be displayed at the prefectural museum starting on the 27th this month, just one month after the well was found at the end of November.

Note: Local Boards of Education (actually called committees) are responsible for handling archaeological discoveries in Japan.

All the better to hear you with, my dear

HERE’S THE ACID TEST for libertarians: Would you still oppose government funding of the private sector if the enterprise receiving the money tickled your fancy?

That’s not a theoretical question. Paradise TV in Japan, a satellite channel for adults, broadcasts news for the hearing impaired with nude sign language presenters.

Of course they’re female! But you’re missing the point!

The program received a subsidy from the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, which is under the control of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
As this article in the Mainichi points out, the government stopped supplying the money after critics objected to taxpayer funds being used for naked news broadcasts.

As the NICT website says, “The main objective of NICT is to give tangible form to ideas and there is no end to our investigations.”

They took the words right out of my mouth!

Libertarians will be gratified to know that the private sector is more than capable of providing these important services without government assistance. Paradise TV has decided to continue the broadcasts on their own.

The justification for their decision, however, has me puzzled:

“We heard many opinions about how important it is that the disabled be able to enjoy life the same way as those without disabilities,” a Paradise spokesman said.

I agree. But I’ve never needed my ears or sense of hearing to enjoy the undraped feminine form!

To provide in-depth coverage of this story, here is a link to Japan’s Paradise TV. Make sure you do not click on the left button if you are under 18 years of age.

Don’t forget: Examine the site with the proper philosophical detachment as you decide whether this is suitable content for taxpayer funding!

LDP-TV

WHO COULD HAVE IMAGINED that the first political party in Japan to create its own YouTube channel would be that group of geezers, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party? But that’s exactly what happened, and here’s the link.

They already have 16 videos up, including a 10-minute history of the LDP and a five-minute clip of lower house member Koichi Hirata from Mie Prefecture playing the shamisen.

If they’re smart, they’ll upload a clip of former Foreign Minister Taro Aso campaigning in Akihabara. He’s the geezer in the party who connects the best with the youth demographic.

It shouldn’t be too long before the opposition Democratic Party starts their own channel. And if they’re smart, they’ll put up a clip of upper house DPJ member Shokichi Kina performing. He updated Okinawan minyo and became well known among fans of world music and roots music.

Besides, he’s a lot funkier than Yasuo Fukuda!

Thanks to Marcus for the tip.

Mr. Lee’s yen for yen

POLITICIANS EVERYWHERE LOVE TO SPEND other people’s money, but here’s an idea that transcends the usual political chutzpah. The presidential candidate has a big idea–and he wants another country to pay for it.

Lee Myung-bak, the former mayor of Seoul who has a 30-point lead over his closest challenger in Thursday’s South Korean presidential election, floated his idea during an appearance on SBS-TV on the 14th.

You can see the brief TV report that appeared on NNN in Japan at this link. Here’s an English translation of what the Japanese news reader said:

Lee Myung-bak, the favorite to win the South Korean presidential election to be held on the 19th, said he would seek help from Japan to provide economic assistance to North Korea and improve the living standards of the people.

Mr. Lee promised that if the North Koreans renounce nuclear weapons, he would raise the annual per capita income of the people in the country to $US 3,000. Discussing the source of the funds during a program on SBS-TV on the night of the 14th, Lee said he would ask international institutions and Japan for $US 40 billion dollars in assistance. He described this as the primary source for the economic assistance to be paid when Japan and North Korea normalize diplomatic relations.

Notice that he left himself an out in the last sentence: “when Japan and North Korea normalize diplomatic relations”.

He’ll need one if he brings up that idea during his first Tokyo-Seoul summit.

Note: That’s a link to a brief story on a TV network website, so I don’t know how long it will last.

Iaido: Cutting to the quick

MANY PEOPLE OUTSIDE JAPAN have become aware of the martial art of kendo, in which the participants use bamboo sticks as sword substitutes in a competition that resembles a fencing match.

Yet few people even in Japan know of the martial art of iaido, which uses real swords. Even the most basic acts can be dangerous:

Intense scrutiny is also paid to the drawing and sheathing of the swords — “it’s easy to lose a thumb if you do that wrong” — and to the spiritual aspects of the samurai code.

This article in the English-language Mainichi profiles iaido master Yuta Kurosawa. Here’s the English website for his dojo, Butokuin. I’ve added the link to the column at right.

UPDATE: Reader Tomojiro passed along a link in English for koryu, or the older martial arts. Read more about them here; I recommend the Ryu Guide page. I’ve also added this link to the right sidebar.

Polls and the Japanese public: Worth the trouble?

YESTERDAY KYODO released the results of its monthly public opinion poll conducted over the weekend showing that support for the Fukuda Cabinet plunged 11.1 percentage points to 35.3%. It was also the first survey that showed the percentage of people who disapproved of the Cabinet exceeding the percentage supporting it.

Those who follow Japanese politics will not be surprised at the reason for the sharp downturn. Earlier last week, the government announced it would not be able to resolve the mess over mishandled pension accounts by next March, as they had promised, and that some accounts might never be straightened out.

A total of 57.6% of the poll respondents said the Cabinet had broken its pledge for a full resolution. The prime minister surely did himself no favors when he retorted that it was an exaggeration to say the government’s inability to deal with the problem constituted a broken promise.

One would have thought that Mr. Fukuda had more discretion, but then it’s not possible to go broke underestimating Japanese politicians. Everyone in Nagata-cho should have realized long ago that the public will severely punish any politician who fails to treat this issue with the utmost care.

Japanese Poll Volatility

Other results from the same poll, however, make one wonder just how seriously the Kyodo poll–or any of the mass media polls in this country–can be taken.

Consider the response to the question about the new bill to resume the Indian Ocean refueling mission by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to support the NATO-led military operation in Afghanistan. A total of 46.7% of the respondents are opposed, while 38.8% are in favor.

Yet, the same poll shows that 41.2% would approve if the lower house passed the bill by overriding an upper house rejection, while 43.6% would be opposed. In other words, considering the margin of error, opinion is split roughly 50-50 when the question is put into a different context.

If the polls are to be believed, the public’s position on the refueling mission has switched from opposition to support and now back to opposition again in just three months.

Since there has been no change in situation in the Indian Ocean or Afghanistan, the public’s opinion of the issue is likely to have been influenced by unrelated factors, or even by the polling methods themselves. Numbers that unstable in the absence of significant events call into question a poll’s reliability to accurately gauge public sentiment.

The Public View of the DPJ

Consider also the numbers showing a large swing in support from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. According to Kyodo, only 28.5% now want an LDP-led government, while 44.7% say they would like to see a DPJ-led government.

But let’s review the events of this autumn. Six weeks ago, the opposition DPJ became embroiled in a political farce when party president Ichiro Ozawa quit during a televised press conference after party elders questioned his leadership. Mr. Ozawa broadly hinted that he would form an alliance with the LDP, only to return to head the opposition and resume blustering at the LDP three days later.

The party’s problems are compounded by their inability to formulate a coherent policy on major issues that all of its members would be comfortable with supporting. This is common knowledge in Japan.

Yet, just one month after the previous poll, the public now thinks the DPJ would be the better choice to lead a government? Here too, the results of public opinion polling showing support for and disapproval of the two mainstream parties has spun back and forth like a weathervane since the upper house elections in July.

One reason Mr. Ozawa got into trouble in the first place was because he saw more sophisticated private polling that indicated his party could not capture a lower house majority in the next election, thereby earning the right to form a government. These numbers have probably not changed.

The only sensible way to view these polls is to consider them as a way to take the temperature of the body politic–that is, if you think someone’s temperature needs to be taken every three hours, in sickness and in health.

Variation in Results

Here’s more food for thought: The Nikkei Shimbun released its own poll on Monday. It too shows the disapproval rating for the Cabinet higher than the approval rating, but by a smaller 46% to 43% margin. There is an eleven-point differential in the approval rating alone between the two polls.

Differences of this magnitude in the results of political polls conducted by major Japanese media outlets are commonplace. The polls from the two country’s two largest newspapers, the Asahi and the Yomiuri, almost invariably have a ten-point differential. It is likely that the most accurate public opinion surveys in Japan are those conducted by the parties themselves–which the public never sees—and the election results.

It can be argued that the public’s fickleness should be expected because neither party consistently offers a clear choice. While there are elements in both the LDP and the DPJ working to create an ideologically discrete two-party system, they have yet to fully emerge.

For example, the LDP has a growing semi-libertarian, semi-Reaganite/Thatcherite wing, but they are not yet strong enough to have gained undisputed control in the party.

In the same way, the opposition DPJ is clearly moving toward a policy of big government. One plank of their platform, called a manifest in Japan, advocates eliminating the tax break parents receive for children and replacing it with an outright monthly payment from the government to the parents. Just this week, they settled on a policy of giving government financial support to students who choose to attend private high schools.

The Real Purpose of Media Polling

Nevertheless, the problems resulting from the marriage of mass media and political polling are universal. For a case in point, Peter Hitchens dissects a British poll in detail to show that “polls…are not devices for measuring public opinion – they are devices for influencing it”. He also makes the same point that I’ve made frequently: “This is the story a lot of papers want, some to keep the flagging, desperately dull soap opera of Westminster alive (because vast numbers of political reporters make their living out of it).”

It happens in Japan, too: the media hounded former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori out of office, and tried to do the same to Shinzo Abe.

The principle is the same as everywhere else: Public opinion polls keep the drama alive, and therefore keep the consumers reading. They also offer the media outlet a chance to influence the public.

Why should different media outlets conduct polls on the same question and get such widely divergent answers? The reason is almost always found in the political orientation of the pollsters.

Here again, the poll results from the Asahi and the Yomiuri illustrate the problem. The Asahi’s results tend to buttress its left wing views, while those of the Yomiuri have a definite slant to the right. That means neither are credible.

Thus, it’s not surprising that the polling figures from the Nikkei, Japan’s equivalent of the Wall Street Journal, show a more moderate disapproval rating for the Fukuda Cabinet than do those from Kyodo, which as a news agency is more interested in turning politics into a horse race.

When all the polls show similar numbers in the answer to the same questions–such the survey results just before the upper house elections–they are probably trustworthy.

But in Japan, that convergence of polling results seldom occurs.