Death, taxes, and dense Japanese politicians

DEATH AND TAXES are the two certainties of life, observed Benjamin Franklin, but others might suggest he could have included a third: obtuse politicians.

Many would find that conclusion justified by the opinion polls released this week conveying the opinion of the Japanese public about the recent maneuvering in Nagata-cho.

The electorate was not entertained by the chabangeki, or low comedy, that played out when Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda of the Liberal Democratic Party and Ichiro Ozawa, the leader of the opposition Democratic Party, met privately to discuss the formation of a grand coalition. That anyone could be surprised by the public’s verdict would be the biggest surprise of all.

It should be apparent to even the casual observer that Japan’s voters abhor the idea of a return to the political practices of previous generations, in which deals were cut, policy settled, and prime ministers chosen in the private rooms of exclusive restaurants. Why, then, do the politicans not understand this?

The public is desperate for politicians who speak to them directly, and reward those who do with overwhelming support. Former Prime Minister Jun’ichiro Koizumi so thrilled his fellow citizens that his public approval rating hit 90% when he took office, and his party won a dominant majority in the Diet’s lower house a year before he stepped down.

Even the forthright—some would say poison-tongued–former Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka attracted and maintained a strong backing, despite a personality ill-suited to the executive branch of government.

Yet the upper level of Japanese political leadership these days seems to be willfully ignoring the evidence staring them in their faces. It is as if they are refusing free money. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came into office with a 70% approval rating, and promptly lost about 20 percentage points of that when he readmitted to the party those members Mr. Koizumi had kicked out for failing to support the overwhelmingly popular postal privatization program. That’s the price a party pays for relying on an old guard that thinks the rearview mirror is the most reliable guide for the road ahead.

Now, a joint poll conducted by the Sankei Shimbun and the Fuji News Network on the 10th and 11th found that public support for the new Fukuda Cabinet has plunged 14.2 percentage points since its formation to 41.1%. Those who disapprove of the Cabinet’s conduct of affairs jumped to 40.3%, a roughly equal percentage.

The reason? The backroom discussions held between Mr. Fukuda and Mr. Ozawa concerning a coalition government. The public would much rather see them assert themselves: 60.5% of those polled were opposed to a coalition government, with just 26.8% expressing support.

That does not mean the public is opposed to cooperation between the two parties, however. They were in favor of interparty talks–68.4% of the voters thought it was a good idea for the two leaders to meet about policy, and a whopping 90.9% wanted those discussions to continue in the future.

What is it that the Japanese political class refuses to see? The Japanese people might have a reputation for preferring vague speech and cautious behavior, but that’s not how they respond when they hear stirring rhetoric and boldness in action. They are thrilled by politicians who involve the public in the political debate, spell out their policies in unambiguous language, and implement those policies without compromise.

Substantial political support that can be translated into huge numbers of votes is there for the taking—if any of the politicians had the courage to seize the opportunity. Few seem willing to even try, however.

This month’s events have disappointed some observers. Pundit and university professor Nobuo Ikeda thinks it will be at least 10 years before the DPJ is capable of forming a government, according to recent comments in Japanese on his blog.

He might be too pessimistic—the party is developing a new generation of leaders at the local level, and the rank and file could well elbow aside the tired trio of Yukio Hatoyama, Naoto Kan, and Ichiro Ozawa before too much longer.

Meanwhile, younger LDP members were already dissatisfied with the selection process that resulted in Yasuo Fukuda’s elevation to prime minister, precisely because that process smacked of the bad old days. They are also an ideologically committed group that seems to be on the verge of coming into their own and dominating party affairs for the foreseeable future.

What other conclusion can be drawn except that these people are playing not to lose instead of to win? In Japan, a 40% Cabinet approval rating has usually been enough for the LDP to maintain its strength in the Diet. But while the Japan Inc. approach might have been a successful strategy in the past, the country and its people have clearly changed.

With all the resources for analyzing public sentiment at the parties’ disposal, it’s astonishing that the leaders of both parties are still unable to see what’s happened. It’s even more astonishing when you consider that recognizing those changes is in their best interest.