Chinese elite voting with their feet

IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, former U.S. Education Secretary Bill Bennett explained his “gates test” for countries:

“…when I was secretary of education… I was going to schools teaching. This young woman in California said you love this country, don’t you? I said yeah. She said why? I said simple test, the gates test. Every country has gates. And here’s the test. When you raise the gates, which way to people run? Do they run in or do they run out? And I said every time we raise the gates, people run in.”

Though Bennett was talking about the United States, the “gates test” also could be applied to other countries. For example, China partially opens its gates to allow intelligent and talented people to study abroad. What happens when the gates in China are raised? This article in the Guardian has the answer:

China suffers the worst brain drain in the world, according to a new study that found seven out of every 10 students who enroll in an overseas university never return to live in their homeland.
Despite the booming economy and government incentives to return, an increasing number of the country’s brightest minds are relocating to wealthier nations, where they can usually benefit from higher living standards, brighter career opportunities and the freedom to have as many children as they wish.

This is not a recent phenomenon; the statistics go back to 1978. The article also includes another astonishing report:

A survey this year found that in Shanghai 30% of high school pupils and 50% of middle-school students wanted to change their nationality.

The Guardian seems to want to attribute this primarily to the one-child policy, which is undoubtedly a factor. Not only do families overseas have the freedom to choose the number of children they want, women are not forcibly sterilized when they break the law. Yet the Guardian fails to account for the totality of the Chinese situation, which is demonstrated by the government’s attempt to remedy the situation:

To reverse the trend, Beijing is offering bigger incentives for returnees. Under new regulations issued in March, senior scientists, engineers and corporate managers are exempted from the household registration system (which determines various state privileges in China), allowed higher salaries and promised places for their children at top universities.

Perhaps the Chinese who study abroad would rather not live under a government whose solution underscores the original problem.

China is too massive, too aggressive, and too willful to be considered anything other than a potential threat, but their untenable system combined with popular unrest and the widespread dissatisfaction this article highlights might prevent the country from ever becoming a viable superpower.

Note #1: The Bennett interview has nothing to do with China or Asia, but those who want to read it can do so here.

Note #2: Thanks for your patience with the recent lack of posts.