Not at all sure Russia will sell its land to China. Didn’t they learn from their mistake in Alaska? That would have been strategic gold to own during the Cold War….

The Slate article seems to be nothing more than idle speculation about what could technically happen. The implication that Russia swiped it from the Qing in the 1850s also seems misleading: the Qing may have had economic interests in it, such as some lumber and fur perhaps, but it was hardly part of their empire (save a few areas along the border perhaps). To a large extent, it was terra nullius, and that’s the origin of the NT issue in a way – Japan and Russia both started getting serious about the area at about same time – hence the temporary dual occupation of Sakhalin/Karafuto. Then Japan traded its half of Sakhalin to Russia in exchange for the Kuril/Chishima islands (all the way to Kamchatka, not just the current four under dispute, so in that respect Japan is being quite modest in its demands). There has been no long-standing incorporation of the area – it’s colonial territory for both countries, really – so it’s not like Russia is holding, say, Sado.

You ask, “Why would Russia turn its back on a bit of very productive water, especially when it’s located right next door to a huge market willing to pay top yen for the products that come from it?”

Why would it turn its back on its very lucrative Far Eastern territories and all that land in Siberia? Yet that’s what it seems to be doing.

madne0: Yes, I am a big Steyn fan!

The “NT Day came and went without rioting” thing isn’t impressive at all when you consider the lack of rioting after Russia shot up the boat of trespassing Japanese fishermen a while back. Is that trial of the skipper still going on?

Excellent post on the whole Northern Territory issue Ampontan. Seriously, does Russia really need any more territory? They’ve still got the largest country in the world in terms of land mass, even after the USSR broke apart. If anything the Japanese could use some more land, space being a premium here and all. And like you said, the Russians are having enough trouble keeping what they’ve got under control. Chechnya anyone?

And the misreporting from most media certainly doesn’t help. Then again, I’ve never really expected anything substantial about Japanese or Asian affairs from AP.

However, if they do get incorporated back into Japan, there would be some challenges for both the national government and Hokkaido’s prefectual government to overcome. I don’t think there are many ethnic Japanese living on the islands currently, and apparently the level of poverty on the islands is pretty high. It would take time to bring the infrastructure on the islands up to the standards throughout Japan.

Speaking of Northern Territory day, I did see an ad in the local newspaper about a lecture in Sendai relating to the islands. That’s all that caught my eye.