Abe’s Meiji trip: Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t

At the least, you have to give credit to the world’s mass media for consistency. Their coverage of current events through the prism of their political views is just as likely to result in inaccuracies and skewed perspectives in East Asia as it is in the West. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the reports filed by the Associated Press and Kyodo on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to the Meiji Shrine on Saturday.

Abe resumed the old custom of a prime ministerial, post-New Year’s visit to the Tokyo shrine built to honor the spirits of the Emperor Meiji and his consort, the Empress Shoken. His predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, broke with tradition to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine instead. Koizumi is, as far as I know, the only prime minister to have visited Yasukuni during the New Year season, though he is one of several to have visited in August to commemorate the end of World War II.

Here are the first two sentences of the Kyodo report:

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Meiji Shrine in Shibuya Ward, Tokyo, and offered a prayer Saturday in an apparent attempt to placate conservatives. Some political observers said the visit was intended as a substitute for a pilgrimage to Yasukuni Shrine so as not to upset China and South Korea.

And here’s the first sentence of the AP report:

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Saturday visited a Tokyo shrine honoring a former emperor, a move that may be aimed at appeasing nationalist conservatives while defusing criticism of his support for visits to a controversial war monument.

When reporters miss the mark so badly, they must have been aiming for a different target altogether. Here’s why:

• Yasukuni visits are not a serious political issue in Japan, so Abe has no need to “placate” or “appease” anyone in this country.

As much as the media wishes it weren’t so, Yasukuni has never been a hot button issue in Japan. While polls show the Japanese public thinks the visits are inadvisable, few here feel passionately about the issue one way or another. Opponents of political shrine visits generally fall into two camps. The first consists of those left of center, whom Abe is not going to please anyway. The second is comprised of people in business and financial circles who wish that politicians wouldn’t go because it creates disharmony with Japan’s neighbors and might cause overseas consumers to look for products Not Made In Japan.

• In particular, Abe has no need to placate or appease conservatives.

Why should he? He is a man of the right himself, and he’s always been open about it. Indeed, he gives us his take on the meaning of conservatism and the reasons for his political philosophy in his recent book Utsukushii Kuni e (Toward a Beautiful Country). The book sold more than 500,000 copies, making it a best-seller in Japanese terms. Anyone in Japan who pays attention to politics knows that Abe always has been and always will be a conservative.

Everyone in Japan also knows–particularly the conservatives–that Abe endorsed Koizumi’s visits to Yasukuni and reportedly visited the shrine himself last spring. In addition, Abe has been out in front of efforts over the years to call North Korea to account for their abduction of Japanese citizens—when some in Japan were still denying that North Korea would even do such a thing. There may be political interests in Japan that Abe would be wise to appease, but burnishing his credentials among conservatives is the least of his concerns.

• Kyodo suggests that the Meiji visit was a “substitute” for a Yasukuni visit to avoid upsetting China and South Korea.

Kyodo’s use of the word “substitute” indicates that they think Abe really wanted to go to Yasukuni to begin with, but was forced by overseas opinion to change his plans.

First, as we’ve seen, the Meiji visit is just a continuation of a long-standing tradition that was broken by Koizumi, a man who is the very definition of a political maverick. Second, this was the first occasion for a shrine visit since Abe became prime minister. How can they presume to know what he intends to do as prime minister until he actually does it?

Abe supported Koizumi’s visits to Yasukuni as an individual politician and as a member of Koizumi’s Cabinet, but that does not mean Abe would necessarily visit himself once he became prime minister, and therefore responsible for representing the entire country.

Yes, Kyodo does say “some political observers believe”, but we all know that’s standard journalistic jive used in news articles to weasel out of making a claim best left to editorials by presenting a proxy to say it for you. Except in this case, Kyodo doesn’t bother to identify the “political observers”, which means it’s just code for the reporter and the people he hangs out with.

Kyodo is half-right, however: if Abe as prime minister did in fact choose to visit Meiji because he wanted to avoid Yasukuni, he did so as part of his broader foreign policy initiative to mend the fences broken with China and South Korea during his predecessor’s administration. There is no other reason.

In fact, some political observers (i.e., me) might suggest that this is an adroit move by Abe, rather than a clumsy expediency. He gets to have his political cake and eat it too by making two diametrically opposed groups happy. Were Abe left of center, the media might well be raising a toast to his sensitivity to the needs of competing interests and his political acumen. Instead, they try to portray him as a milquetoast afraid of offending Japan’s indignant East Asian neighbors as he toadies up to the right wingers.

Why bring Japanese conservatives into the picture at all? Abe knows the answer better than anyone. In his book, he mentions on several occasions having to deal with media bias over the years. He said he first became aware of it during his high school and university days, when the coverage of domestic political affairs was based on the premise that progressives were the “white hats” and conservatives were the “black hats”.

The situation hasn’t changed a bit, has it?